In the first month of the New Year, China's CPI trend is good

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 9 showed that in January 2025, affected by the Spring Festival factor, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.7% from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate expanded from 0.1% in the previous month to 0.5%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose for a fourth straight month, rising 0.5 per cent month-on-month and 0.6 per cent year on year, both accelerating from the previous month.

Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the urban department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from a month-on-month point of view, rising prices of services and food are the main factors affecting the CPI from flat to rise. Service prices rose 0.9%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, affecting the CPI month-on-month growth of about 0.37 percentage points, accounting for more than 50% of the total CPI growth. In terms of services, the demand for travel and entertainment consumption increased significantly during the Spring Festival, and the prices of air tickets, transportation rental fees, travel, movie and performance tickets rose by 27.8%, 16.0%, 11.6% and 9.6% respectively, which combined to affect the CPI increase of about 0.28 percentage points. Prices for domestic services and hairdressing rose 9.3% and 9.2% respectively, driven by the return of migrant workers and increased demand for services. Food prices rose 1.3%, affecting CPI month-on-month growth of about 0.24 percentage points, accounting for more than 30% of the total increase in CPI.

From the year-on-year point of view, service and food prices increased significantly under the influence of the wrong month of the Spring Festival, coupled with the recovery of gasoline prices, which jointly affected the expansion of CPI year-on-year growth. Among the eight categories of goods and services that make up the CPI, the prices of daily necessities and services and transportation and communications fell slightly year-on-year, while the prices of the other six categories rose year-on-year. It is estimated that the carry-over effect of the 0.5% year-on-year CPI change in January is about -0.2 percentage points, and the new impact of price changes this year is about 0.7 percentage points.

Resource: 经济日报